Overshoot Fader · Bollinger %B · AVAX (4h)
Published August 6, 2026 · Last re-tested September 29, 2026
Overshoot Fader — A Bollinger %B position system · Short on AVAX (4h). Discovered by Anny's quant engine and validated out of sample with CFO regime analysis. Performance is re-backtested daily against live market data, so the figures shown here always reflect the current market. Best performance in accumulate+wait regime.
Performance Metrics
What these numbers mean
Return earned per unit of risk taken — not just return.
The deepest loss you would have had to sit through.
How it did on the last fifth of history, which the search was never allowed to see.
At least 30 closed trades, so nothing earns its place on a lucky handful.
Out-of-Sample Validation
Tested on unseen data to verify the strategy is not curve-fitted. Low degradation confirms robustness.
Statistical Confidence
How likely the edge is real — out-of-sample statistical confidence, consistency across time, and a comparison to simply holding the asset.
Return range (90% confidence): -26.56% ··· 41.01% ··· 183.87%
Backtest includes trading fees and slippage, assumes full-capital sequential compounding, and does not model futures funding costs on shorts.
Equity Curve
Strategy Rules
CFO Regime Breakdown
Anny's CFO Line divides market conditions into three regimes. Accumulate means the trend is bullish — ideal for long entries. Distribute means bearish — better to avoid or short. Wait means the trend is unclear. This breakdown shows how the strategy performed in each regime, helping you understand when it works best.
| Regime | Return | Trades | Win Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wait | 7.1% | 32 | 40.6% |
| Accumulate | 16.53% | 7 | 57.1% |
| Distribute | 42.65% | 12 | 66.7% |
| _best_combo | 66.28% | 51 | 49% |
Trade History (51 trades)
| Entry | Exit | Return | Regime |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/22/2026 | 8/22/2026 | +8.21% | Accumulate |
| 8/21/2026 | 8/21/2026 | -4.25% | Accumulate |
| 8/19/2026 | 8/19/2026 | -3.35% | Wait |
| 8/15/2026 | 8/15/2026 | +5.57% | Wait |
| 8/4/2026 | 8/6/2026 | +6.3% | Wait |
| 8/2/2026 | 8/4/2026 | -3.98% | Wait |
| 6/26/2026 | 7/4/2026 | -6.49% | Distribute |
| 6/23/2026 | 6/25/2026 | +8.53% | Distribute |
| 6/15/2026 | 6/18/2026 | +6.34% | Distribute |
| 5/6/2026 | 5/8/2026 | -3.05% | Wait |
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. All strategies involve risk of loss.
